The SmartPlay journal

Better FPL decisions, explained.

Practical notes on expected points, transfer value, ownership and mini-league risk. Every article states the model or method behind it.

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LatestSquad selection5 August 202610 min

GW1 best squad: our recommended 15 for the 2026/27 kick-off

No Salah, two players above £10.0m, and a World Cup hangover. The strangest GW1 draft in years — here's all 15 players we recommend, bench order included, and the two big names we left out.

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Captaincy23 July 20263 min

How SmartPlay picks a captain — and why your mini-league changes the answer

Most captain advice hands everyone the same name. The right pick depends on expected points and where you sit in your mini-league. Here's how the model reasons about both.

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Strategy4 August 20265 min

FPL is a skill game — the evidence, and what not to learn from champions

Multi-season research says the same managers finish high at rates chance can't produce. Here's the proof the process matters, the survivorship traps in every champion interview, and the rank-context rule that ties it all together. Part three of three.

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Strategy3 August 20267 min

The elite manager's playbook: transfers, hits, captaincy and chips for 2026/27

The Hall of Fame's disciplines only pay when they become weekly machinery. The transfer checklist the elites run, the test that decides a minus-4, captaincy by rank situation, and how to spend two chip sets. Part two of three.

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Strategy2 August 20266 min

Stop copying the champion: the six disciplines of the FPL Hall of Fame

Every August the same articles appear — how last year's winner built their team. The uncomfortable truth is that champions are partly lottery winners. Here are the six disciplines the repeat elites actually share. Part one of three.

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Expected points24 July 20264 min

Expected points without the false precision

xPts is most useful as a comparison tool, not a promise. Here is how to read the number, the gap between players, and the uncertainty underneath.

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Transfers22 July 20264 min

When is a transfer actually worth four points?

A hit is not simply incoming xPts minus four. The real comparison includes the player you sell, the planning horizon, captaincy, and the value of waiting.

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Ownership20 July 20264 min

Template, differential, or trap?

Ownership changes the shape of your rank swings, not the quality of a player. Use it after expected points and minutes, never in place of them.

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Bench18 July 20264 min

Your bench order is an availability decision

Bench points only matter when they reach the pitch. The best order combines expected points with the chance each player can actually replace a missing starter.

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